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中国肯定会成为世界最大经济体,但未必是最强大国家

最强大的国家和最大的经济体的含义是不同的。未来几十年,中国人均GDP仍将远远低于美国和西欧等高收入国家。国力没有一个简单的公式,它涉及到外交、科技,甚至是一个国家被他国信任或赞赏的程度。

来源:正和岛(ID:zhenghedao)

作者:陈为

问:中美贸易战接下来会朝什么方向发展?这场贸易战将如何影响这两个国家以及世界?

泰勒:我不知道如何区分我脑海中所恐惧、期待和希望的。但回想起来,美国和其它地区的反贸易运动也曾风行一时。例如,在上世纪70年代和80年代,美国也强硬地认为,与日本的贸易是不公平而且具有破坏性的;在上世纪90年代末和本世纪初,世界各地的城市也都出现了反全球化的抗议活动。这种情况似乎经常发生,即当一场贸易战即将打响时,人们会采取一些较小的行动来限制贸易,但是显而易见,贸易限制具有特定而高昂的成本。做个比喻,限制贸易有点像触碰一个通电的栅栏,大多数人首先是震惊,然后退缩。就我个人而言,我希望任何贸易战都是短暂的、小规模的。贸易要寻求为两国创造双赢局面的途径; 对于每个人来说,贸易战的结局通常都是两败俱伤。

I don’t know how to separate in my mind what I fear and what I expectand what I hope! But when I think back, there have been other times whenanti-trade movements in the US and elsewhere have been popular. For example, in the 1970s and 1980s there was a strong belief in the US that trade with Japanwas unfair and destructive. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there were anti-globalization protests in cities all over the world. What often seems to happen is that when it seems like a trade war might be starting, and certain smaller actions are taken to limit trade, it then becomes very clear thatlimiting trade has specific and large costs. Limiting trade is a little like touching an electrified fence: after doing it, most people feel the shock and back away. I hope that any trade war is short and small. Trade is about finding ways to create win-win scenarios for both countries; trade wars usually end upas lose-lose scenarios for everyone.

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