最近拜读了卡拉曼的著作《 Margin of Safety 》(《安全边际》),做了整理分享给大家。作者首先对投机、金融创新、个人投资者和机构投资者行为等进行分析,解释了投资者造成亏损的原因,之后将自己的价值投资哲学的目标、方法论和具体评估指标进行分享,最后用自身详实的价值投资案例将理论联系到实践,具体阐述价值投资的投资过程。作者对风险尤其强调,反对用波动解释风险,指出低风险高收益机会的真实存在,另外书中概率思维随处可见。读书中有感而发的详细记录如下:

原文:You may be wondering, as several of my friend have, why I would write a book that could encourage more people to become value investors. Don't I run the risk of encouraging increased competition, thereby reducing my own investment returns?



原文:President of the Sequoia Fund, Inc, “Disregarding for the moment whether the prevailing level of stock prices on January 1, 1987 was logical, we are certain that the value of American industry in the aggregate had not increased by 44% as of August 25. Similarly, it is highly unlikely that the value of American industry declined by 23% on a single day, October 19.”


原文:If investors could predict the future direction of the market, they would certainly not choose to be value investors all the time.


原文:Both investments and speculations can be bought and sold. Both typically fluctuate in price and can thus appear to generate investment returns. But there is one critical difference: investments throw off cash flow for the benefit of the owners; speculations do not.


原文:If you look to Mr. Market as a creator of investment opportunities(where price departs from underlying value), you have the makings of a value investor.


原文:Many investors greedily persist in the investment world's version of a search for the holy grail: the attempt to find a successful investment formula.


原文:Investors even remotely tempted to buy new issues must ask themselves how they could possibly fare well when a savvy issuer and greedy underwriter are on the opposite side of every underwriting.


原文:Financial Market innovations are good for wall street but bad for clients. Investors must recognize that the early success of an innovation is not a reliable indicator of its ultimate merit. Both buyers and sellers must believe that they will benefit in the short run, or the innovation will not get off the drawing board; the longer term consequences of such innovations, however, may not have been considered carefully.


原文:In the building practices of ancient Rome, when scaffolding was removed from a completed Roman arch, the Roman engineer stood beneath. If the arch came crashing down, he was the first to know. Thus his concern for the quality of the arch was intensely personal, and it is not surprising that so many Roman arches have survived.


原文:Remaining fully invested at all times certainly simplifies the investment task. The investor simply choose the best available investments. Relative attractiveness becomes the only investment yardstick; no absolute standard is to be met.


原文:For most of the 1980s the default-rate numerator(the volume of junk-bond defaults occurring in a given year) lagged behind the rapidly growing denominator(the total amount of junk bonds outstanding during that year).It was only when issuance virtually ceased in 1990 that the deterioration in credit quality was reflected in default-rate statistics.


原文:I too believe that avoiding loss should be the primary goal of every investor. This does not mean that investors should never incur the risk of any loss at all. Rather ”don't lose money”means that over several years an investment portfolio should not be exposed to appreciable loss of principal.


原文:An investor who earns 16 percent annual returns over a decade, for example, will perhaps surprisingly, end up with more money than an investor who earns 20 percent a year for nine years and then loses 15 percent the tenth year.


原文:They are not influenced by the way others are performing; they are motivated only by their own results. They have infinite patience and are willing to wait until they are thrown a pitch they can handle--an undervalued investment opportunity.


原文:Value investors continually compare potential new investments with their current holdings in order to ensure that they own only the most undervalued opportunities available. In other words, no investment should be considered sacred when a better one comes along.


原文:There are three central elements to a value investment philosophy. First, value investing is a bottom up strategy entailing the identification of specific undervalued investment opportunities. Second, value investing is absolute performance, not relative performance oriented. Finally, value investing is a risk averse approach; attention is paid as much to what can go wrong(risk) as to what can go right(return).


原文:The risk of an investment is described by both the probability and the potential amount of loss. There are only a few things investors can do to counteract risk: diversify adequately, hedge when appropriate, and invest with a margin of safety.


原文:While a great many methods of business valuation exist, there are only three that I find useful. The first is an analysis of going-concern value, known as net present value(NPV) analysis. The second method of business valuation analyzes liquidation value, the expected proceeds if a company were to be dismantled and the assets sold off. The third method of valuation, stock market value, is an estimate of the price at which a company, or its subsidiaries considered separately, would trade in the stock market.


原文:Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values.


原文:Value investing by its very nature is contrarian. Investors may find it difficult to act as contrarians for they can never be certain whether or when they will be proven correct. Since they are acting against the crowd, contrarians are almost always initially wrong and likely for a time to suffer paper losses.


原文:Do they do what is promised, and is it in your best interest? Managing their own money in parallel with their clients? Are all clients treated equally? Have the assets under management grown exceedingly large? Dose the money manager have an intelligent strategy that is likely to result in long-term investment success? How long a track record is there? Was it achieved over one or more market and economic cycles? Was it achieved by the same person who will manage you money, and does it represent the complete results of this manager's entire investment career or only the results achieved during some favorable period? Did this manager invest conservatively in down markets, or did clients lose money? Were the results fairly steady over time, or were they volatile? Was the record the result of one or two spectacular successes or of numerous moderate winners? If this manager's record turns mediocre after one or two spectacular successes are excluded, is there a sound reason to expect more home runs in the future? Is this manager still following the same strategy that was employed to achieve his or her past successes? Were the investments in the underlying portfolio themselves particularly risky, such as the shares of highly leveraged companies?









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