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TED:世界有多邪恶,我们就有多无知(附视频&演讲稿)

你对这个世界有多少认识?汉斯·罗斯林带着他著名的全球人口、健康和收入数据表格(还有一根超级长的教学棒),来证明你认为知道的那些事实,在统计中有很大概率是错误的。再配上他的观众测验——然后,从汉斯的儿子奥拉那里,学习4种能快速摆脱变无知的方法。

出人意料的选择题

先来做一些以下三道选择题吧,测试一下你对这个世界有多少认知。答案会在后面揭晓,Hans的试验结果是非常惊人的。

三道选择题

1、在过去一个世纪里,每年因自然灾害死亡的人数,发生了怎样的变化?

A. 翻倍了

B. 在全世界范围内总体不变

C. 下降了一半

2、在全世界范围内,30岁的女性的受教育的年限是?

A. 七年

B. 五年

C. 三年

3、过去20年里,占世界人口多少百分比的人,生活在极端贫困中?(极端贫困指的是每天填不饱肚子。)

A. 翻倍

B. 基本维持不变

C. 减半

第一题答案

二战之后,每年因自然灾害死亡的人数一路下滑,下降至远低于一半。相比数十年前而言,这个世界在保护人们免受自然灾害方面的能力,已经有了很大的进步。在对瑞典公众进行调查后,得到结果:只有12%的瑞典人回答正确。

第二题答案

女性所受的学校教育年限是逐年增长,约为7年,已经快要赶上男性接受教育的年限了。只有9%的瑞典人,24%的美国公众的选择是正确的。

第三题答案

贫困率几乎减半。然而在美国,只有5%的人回答正确。

那么,新闻界的人应该正确率会高很多吧?

然而,关于上图中的问题,新闻界得分是这样的:美国媒体20%,欧盟媒体6%。

所以,问题并不在于人们不读或者不听新闻,连媒体自己都不知道答案。

以上这些问题来自Gapminder基金会的“无知项目”。我们在对抗无知的战斗中,需要更具有系统性。先入为主的观念是一定存在的,很多富裕国家都认为,我们永远无法消除极端贫困。他们当然是这么认为的,因为他们根本不知道发生了些什么。我们忽略了大多数情形,当你回答问题时,你以最差的情形为依据,这并不意味着你错了,但是你把大多数情形给忽略了。

想要预知未来,必须先了解现在。

为什么我们会如此的无知

1

个人偏见

这是瑞典北部的一座城市,实际上这个地方跟你们从小所居住的那些地方,存在着一模一样的问题:不具备典型性。我们在各自的社区,和我们所遇见的人身上,所获得经验都是不同的。这让我对于“其他人是如何生活的”的看法带有很强烈的偏见。

2

过时信息

在学校,老师们倾向于教我们过时的世界观。这些东西是他们上学的时候学到的,现在又将这些知识教给了学生。还有书,在这个瞬息万变的世界里,那些印刷出来的书当然也是过时的。然而,并且没有一个有效的措施,能使教材与时俱进。

3

新闻偏见

如何选题才能上头条?人们之所以会看是因为它耸人听闻,不寻常的事件才更有意思,不是吗?然后记者会夸大其词,尤其是那些令我们害怕的事情。一名瑞典人遭到鲨鱼的攻击,这类新闻会在瑞典媒体上保持头条几星期。

4

招实用的技巧get√

如何解决?使用我们人类特有的概括能力,将误解转变为指导意见!

误解一:所有的事都在朝更坏的方向发展。

正好相反,大多数事情都在变好。

所以当你面前出现了一个问题,而你不太确定答案时,应该猜“进步”,别选坏的那个。

误解二:穷人和富人之间的贫富差距正在拉大,非常的不平等。

其实贫富差距逐渐缩小,数据显示只有一个峰值。所以如果你觉得不确定,就选“大部分人在中间”,这会帮助你正确的回答问题。

误解三:发达国家和人民需要在非常富裕的情况下,社会才能得以发展,例如让女孩子上学,或者抵御自然灾害。

这是错误的,女孩上学的问题已经解决了。所以如果你不确定,就选“大部分已经实现了”,例如电力、女性教育这一类的问题。

误解四:鲨鱼很危险。

话虽不错,但是没那么严重。从全球的数据来看,当问题的内容是关于我所害怕的东西时,比如地震、其他宗教,比如恐怖分子和鲨鱼,任何让我感到害怕的东西,则我很有可能会夸大问题的严重性。因鲨鱼(你害怕的事物)而死的人非常少,这才是你应有的思维方式。

以上四条技巧只是指导意见,并不适用于所有情况,但这能帮你进行总结概括。

知道这些,很重要吗?

很重要。这对理解贫穷、极端贫穷、如何与之斗争,以及如何让女孩子们上学很重要。当意识到这些问题实际正在改善时,我们才能理解这些问题本身。只有当你对当今世界的认知是基于事实的,你才可能去预测将来会发生什么。

《如何不对世界感到无知》演讲稿双语版

Hans Rosling: I’m going to ask youthree multiple choice questions.Use this device. Use this device to answer.The first question is, how did the numberof deaths per yearfrom natural disaster,how did that change during the last century?Did it more than double,did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,or did it decrease to less than half?Please answer A, B or C.I see lots of answers. This is muchfaster than I do it at universities.They are so slow. They keepthinking, thinking, thinking.Oh, very, very good.

汉斯·罗斯林:我会给你们做三道多项选择题用这个装置来回答第一个问题是 在过去一个世纪里每年因自然灾害死亡的人数发生了怎样的变化是翻倍了还是在全世界范围内总体不变还是下降了一半呢请选择A B 或C我已经看到很多人回答了 这比我在大学里做的时候快得多他们动作很慢 他们一直想啊 想啊好 很好

And we go to the next question.So how long did women 30 years oldin the world go to school:seven years, five years or three years?A, B or C? Please answer.

下一个问题在全世界范围内 30岁的女性的受教育的年限是七年 五年还是三年A B 还是C 请回答

And we go to the next question.In the last 20 years, how did the percentageof people in the worldwho live in extreme poverty change?Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.Did it almost double,did it remain more or less the same,or did it halve?A, B or C?

我们看下一个问题过去20年里占世界人口多少百分比的人生活在极端贫困中?极端贫困指的是每天填不饱肚子是几乎翻倍了还是基本维持不变还是减半了?A B 或 C

Now, answers.You see,deaths from natural disasters in the world,you can see it from this graph here,from 1900 to 2000.In 1900, there was about half a million peoplewho died every year from natural disasters:floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts.And then, how did that change?

现在 公布答案如你所见全球因自然灾害死亡的人数你可以从这幅图里看到从1900年到2000年1900年 每年有接近50万人死于自然灾害洪水 地震 火山喷发 其他 干旱然后 发生了怎样的变化呢

Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.This is how they answered.The Swedish public answered like this:Fifty percent thought it had doubled,38 percent said it’s more or less the same,12 said it had halved.This is the best data from the disaster researchers,and it goes up and down,and it goes to the Second World War,and after that it starts to fall and it keeps fallingand it’s down to much less than half.The world has been much, much more capableas the decades go byto protect people from this, you know.So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

Gapminder对瑞典公众进行了调查他们是这样回答的瑞典公众的回答是这样的50%的人认为翻倍了38%的人认为没太大变化12%的人认为减半了对于灾害研究人员来说这是最理想的数字然后上下有所浮动然后到了二战之后就开始一路下滑下降至远低于一半这个世界 相比数十年前而言在保护人们免受自然灾害方面的能力已经强了太多只有12%的瑞典人知道这一点

So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.(Laughter) (Applause)The chimps don’t watch the evening news,so the chimps,they choose by random, so theSwedes answer worse than random.Now how did you do?That’s you.You were beaten by the chimps.(Laughter)But it was close.You were three times better than the Swedes,but that’s not enough.You shouldn’t compare yourself to Swedes.You must have higher ambitions in the world.

所以我去了趟动物园 问了黑猩猩同样的问题(笑声)(掌声)黑猩猩才不看晚间新闻所以它们是随机选择的所以瑞典人的正确率还不如随机现在来看看你们做的怎样?这是你们的答案你们被黑猩猩打败了(笑声)但很接近了你们的正确率比瑞典人高了三倍但这还不够你们不应该拿自己跟瑞典人比你们对于世界的野心肯定不止于此

Let’s look at the next answer here: women in school.Here, you can see men went eight years.How long did women go to school?Well, we asked the Swedes like this,and that gives you a hint, doesn’t it?The right answer is probably the onethe fewest Swedes picked, isn’t it?(Laughter)Let’s see, let’s see. Here we come.Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.This is the U.S. public.And this is you. Here you come.Ooh.Well, congratulations, you’retwice as good as the Swedes,but you don’t need me —

来看下一个答案 女性所受的学校教育这里 你可以看到男性是八年女性所受的学校教育年限是?瑞典人是这么回答的你从这里能总结出规律了 是吧正确的答案很可能是最少瑞典人选择的那个 对吧(笑声)咱们来看看 开始没错 没错 女性几乎赶上了这是美国公众的选择然后这里是你们的选择 请看噢祝贺大家 你们的正确率比瑞典人高一倍但是你们不需要我来

So how come? I think it’s like this,that everyone is aware that there are countriesand there are areaswhere girls have great difficulties.They are stopped when they go to school,and it’s disgusting.But in the majority of the world,where most people in the world live,most countries, girls today go to schoolas long as boys, more or less.That doesn’t mean that gender equity is achieved,not at all.They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,but schooling is there in the world today.Now, we miss the majority.When you answer, you answeraccording to the worst places,and there you are right, but you miss the majority.

怎么会这样? 我想这是因为大家都知道在有些国家有些地区女孩子们依然处于巨大的困境之中她们不被允许去学校这是令人无法接受的但是在世界上的大部分地方在大部分人生活的地区绝大多数国家 女孩子们上学的时间和男孩子们一样长 或多或少这并不意味着男女平等已经实现了完全不是她们依然受到许多严重的束缚但学校教育已经成为了主流现在 我们忽略了大多数情形当你回答问题时 你以最差的情形为依据这并不意味着你错了但是你把大多数情形给忽略了

What about poverty?Well, it’s very clear that poverty herewas almost halved,and in U.S., when we asked the public,only five percent got it right.And you?Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.(Laughter) (Applause)That little, just a few of you!There must be preconceived ideas, you know.And many in the rich countries,they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.Of course they think so,because they don’t even know what has happened.The first thing to think about the futureis to know about the present.

关于贫困呢?非常明显贫困率几乎减半然而在美国 但我们向公众提问时只有5%的人回答正确那你们呢?差一点就跟黑猩猩一样了(笑声)(掌声)一点点 就差你们中的一小部分人!先入为主的观念是一定存在的很多富裕国家都认为我们永远无法消除极端贫困他们当然是这么认为的因为他们根本不知道发生了些什么想要预知未来必须先了解现在

These questions were a few of the first onesin the pilot phase of the Ignorance Projectin Gapminder Foundation that we run,and it was started, this project, last yearby my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)He’s cofounder and director,and he wanted, Ola told mewe have to be more systematicwhen we fight devastating ignorance.So already the pilots reveal this,that so many in the public score worse than random,so we have to think about preconceived ideas,and one of the main preconceived ideasis about world income distribution.

以上这些问题是由我们负责的Gapminder基金会在 无知项目 的试运行阶段所提出的问题中的一部分这个项目是在去年 由我的老板同时也是我的儿子 奥拉·罗斯林启动的 (笑声)他是联合创始人兼总监并且他想要 奥拉告诉我我们在对抗惊人的无知的战斗中需要更具有系统性试运行结果已经表明有许多公众的得分比随机选择还要低所以我们不得不对那些先入为主的观点进行思考其中一个主要的观点是关于世界上的收入分配

Look here. This is how it was in 1975.It’s the number of people on each income,from one dollar a day —(Applause)See, there was one hump here,around one dollar a day,and then there was one hump heresomewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.The world was two groups.It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,the poor ones and the rich ones,and there were fewer in between.

看这个 这是1975年的数据是人均收入的数值从每天一美元(掌声)看 这里有一个高峰在每天一美元左右然后这里还有一个高峰大约在10到100美元之间世界上有两大群体像骆驼一样 有两个驼峰穷人和富人介于两者之间的人较少

But look how this has changed:As I go forward, what has changed,the world population has grown,and the humps start to merge.The lower humps merged with the upper hump,and the camel dies and we have a dromedary worldwith one hump only.The percent in poverty has decreased.Still it’s appallingthat so many remain in extreme poverty.We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,but that can be ended now.

但是我们来看看数字是如何变化的随着时间推移 发生了什么样的变化随着世界人口的增长两个驼峰开始合并低的驼峰向高的驼峰融合骆驼死了 然后我们得到了一头新的单峰骆驼只有一个驼峰贫困人口的比例减少了但是依然很惊人有这么多人仍然生活在极端贫困中大概还有接近10亿人但这是可以被终结的

The challenge we have nowis to get away from that,understand where the majority is,and that is very clearly shown in this question.We asked, what is the percentage of the world’sone-year-old children who have got thosebasic vaccines against measles and other thingsthat we have had for many years:20, 50 or 80 percent?Now, this is what the U.S.public and the Swedish answered.Look at the Swedish result:you know what the right answer is.(Laughter)Who the heck is a professor ofglobal health in that country?Well, it’s me. It’s me.(Laughter)It’s very difficult, this. It’s very difficult.(Applause)

我们现在所面临的挑战是如何摆脱这些观念 去了解大多数人的处境这一点在以下问题中得到了充分的体现问 世界上有多少比例的一岁儿童接种了那些我们已经使用了多年的对抗麻疹以及其他疾病的疫苗百分之20 50 还是80?这是美国和瑞典公众的回答看看瑞典的结果你就该知道正确的答案是什么了(笑声)该国有个搞全球健康研究的教授 是谁好吧 是我(笑声)这非常难 非常困难(掌声)

However, Ola’s approachto really measure what we know made headlines,and CNN published these results on their weband they had the questions there, millions answered,and I think there were about 2,000 comments,and this was one of the comments. I bet no member of the mediapassed the test, he said.

然而 奥拉用于测量我们所知多少的方法 上了头条CNN在网站上公布了调查结果有几百万人回答了这些问题然后我记得大概有两千多条评论其中一条是这么说的 我打赌新闻界没人能通过这个测试 他说

So Ola told me, Take these devices.You are invited to media conferences.Give it to them and measure what the media know. And ladies and gentlemen,for the first time, the informal resultsfrom a conference with U.S. media.And then, lately, from the European Union media.(Laughter)You see, the problem is not that peopledon’t read and listen to the media.The problem is that themedia doesn’t know themselves.

然后奥拉跟我说 带上这些设备你被邀请参加的是媒体圈的会议分给他们 然后测一测新闻界知道多少 女士们 先生们首先 是来自一场美国媒体会议上的非正式结果之后 是来自欧盟媒体的(笑声)大家看 问题并不在于人们不读或者不听新闻问题在于连媒体自己都不知道

What shall we do about this, Ola?Do we have any ideas?(Applause)

我们对此该怎么办呢 奥拉?有什么主意吗?(掌声)

Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,I’m so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.Fortunately, I will be able to comfort youby showing why it was not your fault, actually.Then, I will equip you with some tricksfor beating the chimps in the future.That’s basically what I will do.

奥拉·罗斯林:是的 我有个主意 但首先对于你们被黑猩猩打败 我表示很抱歉幸运的是 我有办法安慰你们因为其实这不是你们的错然后 我会给你们提供一些窍门以便你们以后能够打败黑猩猩我接下去会做的基本就是这些

But first, let’s look at why are we so ignorant,and it all starts in this place.It’s Hudiksvall. It’s a city in northern Sweden.It’s a neighborhood where I grew up,and it’s a neighborhood with a large problem.Actually, it has exactly the same problemwhich existed in all the neighborhoodswhere you grew up as well.It was not representative. Okay?It gave me a very biased viewof how life is on this planet.So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.We have a personal bias.

首先 来看看为什么我们会如此的无知一切都始于这个地方这是胡迪克斯瓦尔 瑞典北部的一座城市我在这个地方长大这个地方有着一个很大的问题实际上 这个地方跟你们从小所居住的那些地方存在着一模一样的问题那就是不具备典型性他让我对于“其他人是如何生活的”的看法是带有很强烈的偏见的所以这是“无知拼图”的第一块我们有个人偏见

We have all different experiencesfrom communities and people we meet,and on top of this, we start school,and we add the next problem.Well, I like schools,but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,because they learned somethingwhen they went to school,and now they describe this world to the studentswithout any bad intentions,and those books, of course, that are printedare outdated in a world that changes.And there is really no practiceto keep the teaching material up to date.So that’s what we are focusing on.So we have these outdated factsadded on top of our personal bias.

我们在各自的社区 和我们所遇见的人身上所获得经验都是不同的在此之上 我们还会上学这就带来了下一个问题当然 我喜欢学校但老师们倾向于教授过时的世界观因为这些东西是他们上学的时候学到的现在 尽管不带有任何的恶意他们又将这些知识教给了学生还有书 在这个瞬息万变的世界里那些印刷出来的书 当然也是过时的并且没有一个有效的措施能使教材与时俱进所以这就是我们的关注点我们知道的是过时的情况加上我们的个人偏见

What happens next is news, okay?An excellent journalist knows how to pickthe story that will make headlines,and people will read it because it’s sensational.Unusual events are more interesting, no?And they are exaggerated,and especially things we’re afraid of.A shark attack on a Swedish personwill get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

接下去就是新闻了 对吧?一个杰出的记者很清楚要如何选题才能上头条人们之所以会看是因为它耸人听闻不寻常的事件才更有意思 不是吗?然后他们会夸大其词尤其是那些令我们害怕的事情一名瑞典人遭到鲨鱼的攻击这类新闻会在瑞典媒体上保持头条几星期

So these three skewed sources of informationwere really hard to get away from.They kind of bombard usand equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,and on top of it we put the very thingthat makes us humans, our human intuition.It was good in evolution.It helped us generalizeand jump to conclusions very, very fast.It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,and we seek causality where there is none,and we then get an illusion of confidencewhere we believe that we are the best car drivers,above the average.Everybody answered that question, Yeah, I drive cars better.

我们很难摆脱这三类歪曲的消息来源它们对我们狂轰滥炸并且用许多奇怪的观点武装来我们的思维在此基础上 再加上一项人类独特的功能我们的直觉直觉对进化是有利的它帮助我们很快的进行归纳和总结帮助我们夸大我们所惧之事当所惧之事没有发生时 我们就会寻找其中的因果关系然后我们会获得莫名的自信比如我们都自信自己是最好的司机高于平均水平每个人都会回答:没错 我的车开的更好

Okay, this was good evolutionarily,but now when it comes to the worldview,it is the exact reason why it’s upside down.The trends that are increasing are instead falling,and the other way around,and in this case, the chimpsuse our intuition against us,and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.It was supposed to be our strength, wasn’t it?

好吧 这对进化来说是件好事但是 当涉及到世界观时这恰恰是导致结论颠倒的原因有些趋势在上升而不是下降有些则相反在这个例子中 黑猩猩利用我们的直觉打败了我们并且这逐渐成为了我们的弱点 而不是优势这应该是我们的优势所在的 不是吗?

So how do we solve such problems?First, we need to measure it,and then we need to cure it.So by measuring it we can understandwhat is the pattern of ignorance.We started the pilot last year,and now we’re pretty sure that we will encountera lot of ignorance across the whole world,and the idea is really toscale it up to all domainsor dimensions of global development,such as climate, endangered species, human rights,gender equality, energy, finance.All different sectors have facts,and there are organizations trying to spreadawareness about these facts.So I’ve started actually contacting some of them,like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,and asking them, what are your favorite factswhich you think the public doesn’t know?

那么我们该如何解决这类问题呢?首先 我们要进行衡量然后我们再来纠正这里指的衡量 是我们能够明白造成无知的规律是什么试运行是去年启动的现在我们很肯定的是 在全球范围内我们对许多东西是无知的我们的想法是将此扩展到关系到全球发展的所有领域或者维度比如气候 濒危物种 人权性别平等 能源 金融每个行业都会有一些真相并有一些组织正在努力扩大大众对于这些真相的认知度所以我联系了其中的一些像世界自然基金会 国际特赦组织和联合国儿童基金会我问他们 “有哪些你们所熟知的事你认为公众是不知道的?”

Okay, I gather those facts.Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.And then we poll the publicand see where they score worst.So we get a shorter listwith the terrible results,like some few examples from Hans,and we have no problem finding these kindsof terrible results.Okay, this little shortlist, whatare we going to do with it?Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,a global knowledge certificate,which you can use, if you’re a large organization,a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.Basically meaning, we don’t hire peoplewho score like chimpanzees.Of course you shouldn’t.So maybe 10 years from now,if this project succeeds,you will be sitting in an interviewhaving to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

好了 我收集到了如下事实想像一下 一张很长的清单 大概列举了250项然后我们对公众进行调查由此知道哪些项目得分是最低的然后我们获得了一个短一点的清单其结果令人震惊比如之前汉斯给出的一些例子我们可以轻而易举的给出这类令人震惊的结果好了 对于这张短一点的清单我们可以做些什么?我们把它变成了一张“知识证书”一张全球知识证书 可供你使用的如果你是一个大型组织一所学校 大学 或者新闻通讯社用来验证你自己具有全球化的知识体系本质上来说 我们不会聘用那些得分和黑猩猩一样高的人当然 你也不应该所以也许10年之后如果这个项目获得成功你将不得不在面试中写出这些全球知识

So now we come to the practical tricks.How are you going to succeed?There is, of course, one way,which is to sit down late nightsand learn all the facts by heartby reading all these reports.That will never happen, actually.Not even Hans thinks that’s going to happen.People don’t have that time.People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.We need to turn our intuition into strength again.We need to be able to generalize.So now I’m going to show you some trickswhere the misconceptions are turned aroundinto rules of thumb.

现在我们来谈谈实用的技巧要如何才能做到?当然 有一种方法就是你通宵达旦的阅读各种报告并把所有的知识点都记在心里实际上 这是不可能发生的连汉斯都不会相信这种事情会发生人们没那么多时间人们喜欢捷径 现在 捷径来了我们要再次把我们的直觉变成一种优势我们要有能力去概括现在我会给向家展示一些技巧以此将误解转变成为指导意见

Let’s start with the first misconception.This is very widespread.Everything is getting worse.You heard it. You thought it yourself.The other way to think is, most things improve.So you’re sitting with a question in front of youand you’re unsure. You should guess improve. Okay? Don’t go for the worse.That will help you score better on our tests.(Applause)That was the first one.

我们从第一个误解开始这是一个广泛流传的误解所有的事都在朝更坏的方向发展你听说过 你自己也是这么想的从另一个角度想一想 其实大多数事情都在变好所以当你面前出现了一个问题而你不太确定答案时 你应该猜“进步”好吗? 别选坏的那个这会帮助你在我们的测试中获得更高的分数(掌声)这是第一点

There are rich and poorand the gap is increasing.It’s a terrible inequality.Yeah, it’s an unequal world,but when you look at the data, it’s one hump.Okay? If you feel unsure,go for the most people are in the middle. That’s going to help you get the answer right.

穷人和富人之间的贫富差距正在拉大非常的不平等是的 这是个不平等的世界但是当你对照数据时 会发现只有一个驼峰对吗? 所以如果你觉得不确定就选“大部分人在中间”这会帮助你正确的回答问题

Now, the next preconceived idea isfirst countries and people need to be very, very richto get the social developmentlike girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.No, no, no. That’s wrong.Look: that huge hump in the middlealready have girls in school.So if you are unsure, go for the the majority already have this, like electricity and girls inschool, these kinds of things.They’re only rules of thumb,so of course they don’t apply to everything,but this is how you can generalize.

现在 下一个先入为主的观点是发达国家和人民需要在非常富裕的情况下社会才能得以发展例如让女孩子上学 或者抵御自然灾害不不不 这是错误的看 处于中间的那一大块驼峰已经解决了女孩上学的问题所以如果你不确定 就选”大部分已经实现了“例如电力 女性教育 这一类的问题这些只是指导意见所以并不适用于所有情况但这能帮你进行总结概括

Let’s look at the last one.If something, yes, this is a good one,sharks are dangerous.No — well, yes, but they are not so importantin the global statistics, that is what I’m saying.I actually, I’m very afraid of sharks.So as soon as I see a questionabout things I’m afraid of,which might be earthquakes, other religions,maybe I’m afraid of terrorists or sharks,anything that makes me feel,assume you’re going to exaggerate the problem.That’s a rule of thumb.Of course there are dangerous things that are also great.Sharks kill very, very few.That’s how you should think.

我们来看看最后一个如果有什么 没错 这张照片很赞鲨鱼很危险其实不是 话虽不错 但是没那么严重从全球的数据来看 这是我想说的其实 我本人非常害怕鲨鱼当我看到那些关于我所害怕的东西的提问时比如地震 其他宗教比如我害怕恐怖分子和鲨鱼任何让我感到害怕的东西你很有可能会夸大问题的严重性这是指导意见之一当然 有些危险的事物确实会造成严重的后果因鲨鱼致死的人非常少这才是你应有的思维方式

With these four rules of thumb,you could probably answer better than the chimps,because the chimps cannot do this.They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.And hopefully we can turn your world aroundand we’re going to beat the chimps. Okay?(Applause)That’s a systematic approach.

有了以上四条技巧你很有可能会取得比黑猩猩更好的成绩因为黑猩猩无法做到这些他们无法总结概括这些技巧希望我们能够改变你的世界然后我们一起来打败黑猩猩 好吗(掌声)这是一个系统的方法

Now the question, is this important?Yeah, it’s important to understand poverty,extreme poverty and how to fight it,and how to bring girls in school.When we realize that actually it’ssucceeding, we can understand it.But is it important for everyone elsewho cares about the rich end of this scale?I would say yes, extremely important,for the same reason.If you have a fact-based worldview of today,you might have a chance to understandwhat’s coming next in the future.

那么现在问题来了 这很重要吗是的 这对理解贫穷极端贫穷 以及如何与之斗争很重要以及如何让女孩子们上学当意识到这些问题实际正在改善时我们才能理解这些问题本身但是 会有人在意处于富裕一端的人吗这很重要吗我想说是的 非常非常重要同样的理由如果你对当今世界的认知是基于事实的那么你才可能会有机会去预测将来会发生什么

We’re going back to these two humps in 1975.That’s when I was born,and I selected the West.That’s the current EU countries and North America.Let’s now see how the rest and the West comparesin terms of how rich you are.These are the people who can affordto fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.In 1975, only 30 percent of them livedoutside EU and North America.But this has changed, okay?So first, let’s look at the change up till today, 2014.Today it’s 50/50.The Western domination is over, as of today.That’s nice. So what’s going to happen next?Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF,International Monetary Fund, website.They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.So I can use that to go five years into the future,assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.I did that, but I went even further.I used those five years for the next 20 yearswith the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.Let’s move into the future.In 2020, it’s 57 percent in the rest.In 2025, 63 percent.2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.Seventy-three percent of the rich consumersare going to live outside North America and Europe.So yes, I think it’s a good idea for a company to use this certificateto make sure to make fact-based decisions in the future.

我们回过头来看1975年的这两个峰值也就是我刚出生的时候我选择了西方国家也就是现在的欧盟和北美国家我们来看看其他地区和西方国家的比较关于富裕程度这些是能够负担得起坐飞机出国度假的人1975年的时候 只有30%的人是住在欧盟和北美以外的地区但是情况已经变了首先 我们来看看当今的情况 2014年现在是一半一半西方国家的统治在当今已经不复存在了很好 那么接下去会发生什么呢?你看到那个高峰了吗? 你看到它是如何变化的吗?我做了一个小试验 我查看了国际货币基金组织的网站他们对今后五年的GDP做了一个预测所以我可以借此来推测未来5年的变化假设各国的贫富差距保持不变除此以外 我还做了进一步的预测我用未来5年的数据对未来20年做了预测同样的变化速度 就像一个实际很可能会发生的试验一样让我们移步未来2020年 57%来自非西方国家2025年 63%2030年 68% 到了2035年西方国家在富裕消费者市场中的比例被赶超这些仅仅是针对未来的GDP所作出的推测73%的富裕消费者将居住在北美和欧洲以外的地区所以没错 我认为公司应该用“知识证书”来确保未来能作出基于事实的决策

Thank you very much.(Applause)

非常感谢(掌声)

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